Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 11.618970 14.238971 17.163672 20.649067 24.667195 29.131814 34.444390
2026-01-04 7.945176 11.297233 15.463721 20.928442 27.805211 36.067444 46.630792
2026-01-11 5.964657 9.571176 14.450688 21.328840 30.547492 42.239387 57.923414
2026-01-18 4.735422 8.451010 13.856858 21.943284 33.339910 48.412948 69.380734
2026-01-25 3.608997 7.172201 12.741668 21.558334 34.576142 52.458515 78.148517
2026-02-01 2.909614 6.383393 12.173879 21.802988 36.591927 57.555942 88.474195
2026-02-08 2.258624 5.504033 11.286969 21.391797 37.523976 61.095437 96.736600
2026-02-15 1.725431 4.694241 10.357366 20.750740 37.977251 63.883025 103.979495
2026-02-22 1.463609 4.362589 10.205926 21.352626 40.369493 69.599672 115.641094
2026-03-01 1.152696 3.828496 9.577092 21.031393 41.207740 72.968055 123.948842
2026-03-08 0.937197 3.451805 9.184484 21.067424 42.602589 77.218056 133.700566
2026-03-15 0.695540 2.916141 8.357946 20.178470 42.320007 78.772618 139.368607
2026-03-22 0.582971 2.720073 8.269496 20.772217 44.791706 85.058193 152.931587
2026-03-29 0.468668 2.471383 8.017615 21.018196 46.677379 90.521058 165.506260
2026-04-05 0.382962 2.277158 7.854326 21.417493 48.855120 96.551992 179.195792
2026-04-12 0.320738 2.137947 7.799763 22.033761 51.466340 103.412219 194.446848
2026-04-19 0.238758 1.863271 7.321008 21.647552 52.113691 106.924376 204.359728
2026-04-26 0.190629 1.706962 7.134098 21.892998 53.994960 112.636797 218.064180
2026-05-03 0.138866 1.484766 6.694596 21.480472 54.515037 115.952638 227.867923
2026-05-10 0.096172 1.263748 6.192468 20.837324 54.495879 118.275921 236.048788
2026-05-17 0.079514 1.198209 6.187750 21.441174 57.109516 125.466874 252.727261
2026-05-24 0.056347 1.048171 5.844414 21.118894 57.722153 128.994981 263.205175
2026-05-31 0.041784 0.946533 5.646856 21.155042 59.102407 133.990462 276.363865